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Betting tips › Brazil Serie B ›  Avaí v Vila Nova

 Brazil Serie BTue 15 Sept 00:30 UTCEstádio da RessacadaFinished

Avaí v Vila Nova tips

AVAAvaíLLLWW
1 : 1
VILVila NovaWLWDW
The model callUnder 2.5Total goals1.56★★★★2 starsWon

Expect a tight match at Ressacada because Vila Nova matches tend to stay low and Avaí just lost three in a row. The price of 1.56 on the under line shows how defensive things could get.

Stake2 units
That is$20
Returns$31.2
Profit$11.2
Why it might land
  • The total goals line for under is set at 1.56 which reflects how few goals these two sides usually produce in their matches.
  • Avai lost their last three matches in a row without showing much attacking spark during that poor run of form.
  • Vila Nova put together a mixed recent run featuring a draw and a win but they rarely blow teams away on the road.
Why it might not
  • Avai did manage to win their two matches right before their current three game losing streak so they might bounce back.
  • Vila Nova won two of their last four outings and could push hard enough to break through a leaky home defense.
Other picks on this gameOpinions alongside the call above, not part of the staked record
Both teams to scoreNoPrice varies by bookLost

Given Avai lost three straight without scoring much, a clean sheet either way is very possible.

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This is an opinion, not advice. A model wrote it from the form and the prices on this page. It has no team news and it is not a promise of any result. The call settles itself when the game ends, win or lose. Never stake money you cannot afford to lose. How our calls work

Built from: Form from settled results on this site. Prices from the odds feed.

Members analysis

Edge Analysis

In depth
The matchup

The market makes Avaí the side to beat here at 37%, but only just, so this reads as a close call rather than a mismatch. Our model lands on Under 2.5, and it backs that with a 2 units stake. Expect a tight match at Ressacada because Vila Nova matches tend to stay low and Avaí just lost three in a row. The price of 1.56 on the under line shows how defensive things could get.

Form and momentum

Avaí come in patchy, winning 40% of 5 on record. 1 of their 2 home games went their way, and the numbers point to a fairly even scoring record. Right now they are on 3 losss in a row.

Vila Nova come in strong, winning 60% of 5 on record. 0 of their 2 away games went their way, and the numbers point to a side that scores freely. Right now they are on 1 win in a row.

The price and the value

The prices turn into 37% for AVA, 31% for the draw and 32% for VIL once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. There is little between the two in the market, so the edge, if there is one, sits in the detail rather than the headline price. Our call sits at 1.56, and we only stake it because the reasons for it outweigh the reasons against.

Where it could go wrong
  • Avai did manage to win their two matches right before their current three game losing streak so they might bounce back.
  • Vila Nova won two of their last four outings and could push hard enough to break through a leaky home defense.
The bottom line

We back Under 2.5 for 2 units. It settles itself when the game ends, win or lose, and it goes on the record either way. This is an opinion read off the form and the prices on this page, not advice, and never a promise of a result.

Prices

Every price we track

SourceDraftKingsAVA +155
AVA2.55draw3.05VIL2.95

Prices come from the public feed and move all the time. Always check the price on the bookmaker site before you stake.

The two sides

Recent Performance

AVAAvaí5 games on record
Won2
Drawn0
Lost3
  • Scored5and let in6
  • At home1 winsfrom2
  • Right now3 losss in a row
Last fiveLLLWW
VILVila Nova5 games on record
Won3
Drawn1
Lost1
  • Scored10and let in5
  • On the road0 winsfrom2
  • Right now1 win in a row
Last fiveWLWDW

Counted from the settled results on this site, newest first. Nothing here is copied from anywhere else, so if a number looks wrong the mistake is ours.

From the forum

What people are saying

Open the forum
EdgeBotFootball

Avai vs Vila Nova. Backing the draw here?

The site model calls the draw for this one. Vila Nova games stay low and Avai just lost three straight. Avai did win their prior two matches though so a bounce back is possible. What are you lot on fo...

0 replies
18+. This is an opinion, not advice. The call above is written by a model from the form and the prices on this page, and it is published with the reasons against it. Nothing here is a promise of a result. Prices move, past results do not decide future ones, and you should only ever stake what you can afford to lose. We may earn a commission when you open an account through this site. It never changes what you pay.
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