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Betting tips › Brasileirao ›  Athletico-PR v Palmeiras

 BrasileiraoSat 17 Oct 18:00 UTCArena da Baixada

Athletico-PR v Palmeiras tips

CAPAthletico-PRWDLDW
VS
PALPalmeirasWDWDD
The model callPalmeirasMatch result2.35★★★★2 stars

Palmeiras travels to face Athletico PR at Arena da Baixada with solid form behind them. The away win price of 2.35 offers fair value for the stronger side.

Stake2 units
That is$20
Returns$47
Profit$27
Why it might land
  • Palmeiras arrives on a steady five match unbeaten run that includes two wins and three draws across recent league fixtures.
  • Athletico PR shows mixed form in their last five matches with two wins, two draws and one defeat recorded.
  • The available price of 2.35 on Palmeiras to win gives us a decent return on a team avoiding defeat consistently.
Why it might not
  • Athletico PR plays this fixture at home inside the Arena da Baixada where they recently managed to secure a solid win.
  • Palmeiras has drawn three of their last five matches, which shows they sometimes struggle to turn dominance into three points.
Other picks on this gameOpinions alongside the call above, not part of the staked record
Both teams to scoreYesPrice varies by book

Both teams have shown enough attacking consistency in their recent results to find the net here.

Total goalsUnder 2.5 goalsPrice varies by book

Both sides have recorded several tight draws recently suggesting a cautious match with few clear chances.

Opens the books licensed in United States
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This is an opinion, not advice. A model wrote it from the form and the prices on this page. It has no team news and it is not a promise of any result. The call settles itself when the game ends, win or lose. Never stake money you cannot afford to lose. How our calls work

Built from: Form from settled results on this site. Prices from the odds feed.

Members analysis

Edge Analysis

In depth
The matchup

The market makes Palmeiras the side to beat here at 40%, but only just, so this reads as a close call rather than a mismatch. Our model lands on Palmeiras, and it backs that with a 2 units stake. Palmeiras travels to face Athletico PR at Arena da Baixada with solid form behind them. The away win price of 2.35 offers fair value for the stronger side.

Form and momentum

Athletico-PR come in patchy, winning 43% of 7 on record. 1 of their 3 home games went their way, and the numbers point to games at both ends, plenty of goals either way. Right now they are on 1 win in a row.

Palmeiras come in patchy, winning 38% of 8 on record. 1 of their 5 away games went their way, and the numbers point to a side built on a tight back line. Right now they are on 1 win in a row.

The price and the value

The prices turn into 32% for CAP, 28% for the draw and 40% for PAL once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. There is little between the two in the market, so the edge, if there is one, sits in the detail rather than the headline price. Our call sits at 2.35, and we only stake it because the reasons for it outweigh the reasons against.

Where it could go wrong
  • Athletico PR plays this fixture at home inside the Arena da Baixada where they recently managed to secure a solid win.
  • Palmeiras has drawn three of their last five matches, which shows they sometimes struggle to turn dominance into three points.
The bottom line

We back Palmeiras for 2 units. It settles itself when the game ends, win or lose, and it goes on the record either way. This is an opinion read off the form and the prices on this page, not advice, and never a promise of a result.

Prices

Every price we track

SourceDraftKingsPAL +135
CAP2.90draw3.40PAL2.35

Prices come from the public feed and move all the time. Always check the price on the bookmaker site before you stake.

The two sides

Recent Performance

CAPAthletico-PR7 games on record
Won3
Drawn3
Lost1
  • Scored15and let in13
  • At home1 winsfrom3
  • Right now1 win in a row
Last fiveWDLDW
PALPalmeiras8 games on record
Won3
Drawn4
Lost1
  • Scored11and let in6
  • On the road1 winsfrom5
  • Right now1 win in a row
Last fiveWDWDD

Counted from the settled results on this site, newest first. Nothing here is copied from anywhere else, so if a number looks wrong the mistake is ours.

18+. This is an opinion, not advice. The call above is written by a model from the form and the prices on this page, and it is published with the reasons against it. Nothing here is a promise of a result. Prices move, past results do not decide future ones, and you should only ever stake what you can afford to lose. We may earn a commission when you open an account through this site. It never changes what you pay.
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