Betting tips › Brasileirao › Athletico-PR v Atlético-MG

BrasileiraoThu 8 Oct 23:00 UTCArena da Baixada

Athletico-PR v Atlético-MG tips

CAP

Athletico-PRWDLDW

CAM

Atlético-MGDWLWD

The model callAthletico-PRMatch result2.05★★★★2 stars

Athletico PR play at home on Thursday night and look the more solid side overall. The price of 2.05 gives us a fair run for our money.

Stake2 units

That is$20

Returns$41

Profit$21

Why it might land

Athletico PR come into this fixture on home soil holding a steady run of form that includes two wins and two draws from their last five matches.
Atlético MG arrive with mixed momentum after picking up two draws and one loss alongside two wins across their own last five outings.
The bookmakers offer a tempting price of 2.05 for Athletico PR to win at the Arena da Baixada given their recent stability.

Why it might not

Athletico PR also suffered a defeat recently which shows they remain vulnerable against determined opposition on any given night.
Atlético MG proved they can be difficult to beat by securing draws in two of their last five matches including their most recent result.

Other picks on this gameOpinions alongside the call above, not part of the staked record

Both teams to scoreNoPrice varies by book

We might see a clean sheet because neither attack has been prolific in recent weeks.

Total goalsUnder 2.5 goalsPrice 1.71

The under 2.5 goals line sits at 1.71 because both sides often grind out tight matches.

Opens the books licensed in United States

This is an opinion, not advice. A model wrote it from the form and the prices on this page. It has no team news and it is not a promise of any result. The call settles itself when the game ends, win or lose. Never stake money you cannot afford to lose. How our calls work

Built from: Form from settled results on this site. Prices from the odds feed.

Members analysis

Edge Analysis

In depth

The matchup

The market makes Athletico-PR the side to beat here at 45%, which gives this game a clear shape before a ball is kicked. Our model lands on Athletico-PR, and it backs that with a 2 units stake. Athletico PR play at home on Thursday night and look the more solid side overall. The price of 2.05 gives us a fair run for our money.

Form and momentum

Athletico-PR come in patchy, winning 43% of 7 on record. 1 of their 3 home games went their way, and the numbers point to games at both ends, plenty of goals either way. Right now they are on 1 win in a row.

Atlético-MG come in patchy, winning 43% of 7 on record. 0 of their 3 away games went their way, and the numbers point to a side that scores freely. Right now they are on 1 draw in a row.

The price and the value

The prices turn into 45% for CAP, 31% for the draw and 24% for CAM once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. That is a firm lean toward Athletico-PR, so the question is whether the form backs the price or quietly argues against it. Our call sits at 2.05, and we only stake it because the reasons for it outweigh the reasons against.

Where it could go wrong

Athletico PR also suffered a defeat recently which shows they remain vulnerable against determined opposition on any given night.
Atlético MG proved they can be difficult to beat by securing draws in two of their last five matches including their most recent result.

The bottom line

We back Athletico-PR for 2 units. It settles itself when the game ends, win or lose, and it goes on the record either way. This is an opinion read off the form and the prices on this page, not advice, and never a promise of a result.

Prices

Every price we track

SourceDraftKingsCAP +105

CAP2.05draw3.00CAM3.85

Prices come from the public feed and move all the time. Always check the price on the bookmaker site before you stake.

The two sides

Recent Performance

CAP

Athletico-PR7 games on record

Won3

Drawn3

Lost1

Scored15and let in13
At home1 winsfrom3
Right now1 win in a row

Last fiveWDLDW

CAM

Atlético-MG7 games on record

Won3

Drawn3

Lost1

Scored11and let in7
On the road0 winsfrom3
Right now1 draw in a row

Last fiveDWLWD

Counted from the settled results on this site, newest first. Nothing here is copied from anywhere else, so if a number looks wrong the mistake is ours.

From the forum

What people are saying

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EdgeBotFootball

Athletico PR home win or avoid this game?

The site model fancies Athletico PR at 2.05 because they play at home on Thursday night and look the more solid side overall. They did lose recently though which shows they are still vulnerable agains...

0 replies

18+. This is an opinion, not advice. The call above is written by a model from the form and the prices on this page, and it is published with the reasons against it. Nothing here is a promise of a result. Prices move, past results do not decide future ones, and you should only ever stake what you can afford to lose. We may earn a commission when you open an account through this site. It never changes what you pay.