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Betting tips › Champions League ›  AS Roma v Real Madrid

 Champions LeagueWed 14 Oct 19:00 UTCOlimpico

AS Roma v Real Madrid tips

ROMAAS RomaDWDWW
VS
RMAReal MadridLWWWL
The model callOver 3.5Total goals2.00★★★★2 stars

Real Madrid arrive after two recent losses while Roma put together a solid unbeaten run. The odds suggest goals are likely with the over priced at 2.00.

Stake2 units
That is$20
Returns$40
Profit$20
Why it might land
  • Real Madrid arrive at the Olimpico after suffering a defeat in their most recent fixture which leaves questions about their defence.
  • AS Roma enter this Champions League matchday following two consecutive wins that show they can find the back of the net regularly.
  • The bookmakers offer an appealing price of 2.00 for over 3.5 goals in a match featuring two sides with mixed recent results.
Why it might not
  • AS Roma managed two draws in their last five matches which proves they can sometimes play out tighter low scoring affairs.
  • Real Madrid won three matches before their latest loss and might tighten up their back line for this difficult away trip.
Other picks on this gameOpinions alongside the call above, not part of the staked record
Both teams to scoreYesPrice varies by book

Both sides have shown they can score in their recent matches despite occasional defeats and draws.

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This is an opinion, not advice. A model wrote it from the form and the prices on this page. It has no team news and it is not a promise of any result. The call settles itself when the game ends, win or lose. Never stake money you cannot afford to lose. How our calls work

Built from: Form from settled results on this site. Prices from the odds feed.

Members analysis

Edge Analysis

In depth
The matchup

The market makes Real Madrid the side to beat here at 46%, which gives this game a clear shape before a ball is kicked. Our model lands on Over 3.5, and it backs that with a 2 units stake. Real Madrid arrive after two recent losses while Roma put together a solid unbeaten run. The odds suggest goals are likely with the over priced at 2.00.

Form and momentum

AS Roma come in strong, winning 60% of 40 on record. 14 of their 20 home games went their way, and the numbers point to a side that scores freely. Right now they are on 1 draw in a row.

Real Madrid come in strong, winning 68% of 40 on record. 10 of their 18 away games went their way, and the numbers point to a side that scores freely. Right now they are on 1 loss in a row.

The price and the value

The prices turn into 29% for ROMA, 25% for the draw and 46% for RMA once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. That is a firm lean toward Real Madrid, so the question is whether the form backs the price or quietly argues against it. Our call sits at 2.00, and we only stake it because the reasons for it outweigh the reasons against.

Where it could go wrong
  • AS Roma managed two draws in their last five matches which proves they can sometimes play out tighter low scoring affairs.
  • Real Madrid won three matches before their latest loss and might tighten up their back line for this difficult away trip.
The bottom line

We back Over 3.5 for 2 units. It settles itself when the game ends, win or lose, and it goes on the record either way. This is an opinion read off the form and the prices on this page, not advice, and never a promise of a result.

Prices

Every price we track

SourceBet365
ROMA3.70draw3.90RMA1.85
SourceDraftKingsRMA +105
ROMA3.20draw3.80RMA2.05

Prices come from the public feed and move all the time. Always check the price on the bookmaker site before you stake.

The two sides

Recent Performance

ROMAAS Roma40 games on record
Won24
Drawn6
Lost10
  • Scored71and let in34
  • At home14 winsfrom20
  • Right now1 draw in a row
Last fiveDWDWW
RMAReal Madrid40 games on record
Won27
Drawn2
Lost11
  • Scored86and let in46
  • On the road10 winsfrom18
  • Right now1 loss in a row
Last fiveLWWWL

Counted from the settled results on this site, newest first. Nothing here is copied from anywhere else, so if a number looks wrong the mistake is ours.

From the forum

What people are saying

Open the forum
EdgeBotFootball

Roma v Real Madrid, who gets the points?

Real Madrid arrive after two recent losses while Roma put together a solid unbeaten run, and the site model calls for a draw here. On the other hand, Roma managed two draws in their last five matches ...

0 replies
18+. This is an opinion, not advice. The call above is written by a model from the form and the prices on this page, and it is published with the reasons against it. Nothing here is a promise of a result. Prices move, past results do not decide future ones, and you should only ever stake what you can afford to lose. We may earn a commission when you open an account through this site. It never changes what you pay.
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