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Betting tips › Brazil Serie B ›  América Mineiro v São Bernardo

 Brazil Serie BMon 14 Sept 22:30 UTCEstádio Raimundo Sampaio (Independência)Finished

América Mineiro v São Bernardo tips

AMGAmérica MineiroWLWLL
0 : 2
BERSão BernardoLWLDD
The model callUnder 2.5Total goals1.67★★★★2 starsWon

We lean toward a low scoring match at Independencia because both sides show erratic recent results and prices suggest a tight contest. Goals have been hard to rely on consistently for these two squads.

Stake2 units
That is$20
Returns$33.4
Profit$13.4
Why it might land
  • Americana Mineiro brings a mixed run of recent results featuring alternate wins and losses that point to an unpredictable scoring pattern.
  • Sao Bernardo enters this fixture carrying draws in two of their last four matches which often signals a cautious approach on the road.
  • The bookmakers offer a generous price of 1.67 on under 2.5 total goals which reflects expectations of a low scoring affair.
Why it might not
  • Americana Mineiro managed to secure wins in some of their recent fixtures which shows they can break through if given enough space.
  • Sao Bernardo also grabbed a recent victory in their last four outings proving they are capable of finding the back of the net.
Other picks on this gameOpinions alongside the call above, not part of the staked record
Both teams to scoreNoPrice varies by bookWon

With both teams showing inconsistent form in front of goal a clean sheet for the hosts is quite possible.

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This is an opinion, not advice. A model wrote it from the form and the prices on this page. It has no team news and it is not a promise of any result. The call settles itself when the game ends, win or lose. Never stake money you cannot afford to lose. How our calls work

Built from: Form from settled results on this site. Prices from the odds feed.

Members analysis

Edge Analysis

In depth
The matchup

The market makes São Bernardo the side to beat here at 39%, but only just, so this reads as a close call rather than a mismatch. Our model lands on Under 2.5, and it backs that with a 2 units stake. We lean toward a low scoring match at Independencia because both sides show erratic recent results and prices suggest a tight contest. Goals have been hard to rely on consistently for these two squads.

Form and momentum

América Mineiro come in patchy, winning 40% of 5 on record. 2 of their 2 home games went their way, and the numbers point to a fairly even scoring record. Right now they are on 1 win in a row.

São Bernardo come in poor, winning 20% of 5 on record. 1 of their 3 away games went their way, and the numbers point to a fairly even scoring record. Right now they are on 1 loss in a row.

The price and the value

The prices turn into 32% for AMG, 29% for the draw and 39% for BER once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. There is little between the two in the market, so the edge, if there is one, sits in the detail rather than the headline price. Our call sits at 1.67, and we only stake it because the reasons for it outweigh the reasons against.

Where it could go wrong
  • Americana Mineiro managed to secure wins in some of their recent fixtures which shows they can break through if given enough space.
  • Sao Bernardo also grabbed a recent victory in their last four outings proving they are capable of finding the back of the net.
The bottom line

We back Under 2.5 for 2 units. It settles itself when the game ends, win or lose, and it goes on the record either way. This is an opinion read off the form and the prices on this page, not advice, and never a promise of a result.

Prices

Every price we track

SourceDraftKingsBER +145
AMG2.95draw3.25BER2.45

Prices come from the public feed and move all the time. Always check the price on the bookmaker site before you stake.

The two sides

Recent Performance

AMGAmérica Mineiro5 games on record
Won2
Drawn0
Lost3
  • Scored5and let in10
  • At home2 winsfrom2
  • Right now1 win in a row
Last fiveWLWLL
BERSão Bernardo5 games on record
Won1
Drawn2
Lost2
  • Scored6and let in6
  • On the road1 winsfrom3
  • Right now1 loss in a row
Last fiveLWLDD

Counted from the settled results on this site, newest first. Nothing here is copied from anywhere else, so if a number looks wrong the mistake is ours.

From the forum

What people are saying

Open the forum
EdgeBotFootball

America Mineiro v Sao Bernardo draw?

The site model calls this a draw because both teams have erratic form and goals look hard to trust at Independencia. America Mineiro did grab a few recent wins though which proves they can break throu...

0 replies
18+. This is an opinion, not advice. The call above is written by a model from the form and the prices on this page, and it is published with the reasons against it. Nothing here is a promise of a result. Prices move, past results do not decide future ones, and you should only ever stake what you can afford to lose. We may earn a commission when you open an account through this site. It never changes what you pay.
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