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Betting tips › Brazil Serie B ›  América Mineiro v Juventude

 Brazil Serie BMon 28 Sept 22:30 UTCEstádio Raimundo Sampaio (Independência)

América Mineiro v Juventude tips

AMGAmérica MineiroLLWLW
VS
JUVJuventudeLLWDD
The model callJuventudeMatch result2.10★★★★2 stars

Juventude travels as the clear favourite against an inconsistent home side despite some recent struggles. The bookmakers have priced the away win at 2.10 which gives us a solid angle to back.

Stake2 units
That is$20
Returns$42
Profit$22
Why it might land
  • Juventude comes into this fixture priced at 2.10 to win the match which offers a reasonable price for an away side.
  • América Mineiro has struggled for consistency lately having suffered three defeats from their last five matches in the league.
  • The visitors are better positioned in terms of recent form compared to the home team who keep losing matches.
Why it might not
  • Juventude has failed to win their most recent two matches after drawing back to back games before this trip.
  • América Mineiro managed to secure two wins in their last five outings showing they can still win at home.
Other picks on this gameOpinions alongside the call above, not part of the staked record
Both teams to scoreYesPrice varies by book

Both sides have shown enough defensive vulnerability in their recent results to suggest neither will keep a clean sheet.

Total goalsOver 2.5 goalsPrice 2.20

The price of 2.20 for over 2.5 goals looks generous given how both defences have leaked defeats lately.

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This is an opinion, not advice. A model wrote it from the form and the prices on this page. It has no team news and it is not a promise of any result. The call settles itself when the game ends, win or lose. Never stake money you cannot afford to lose. How our calls work

Built from: Form from settled results on this site. Prices from the odds feed.

Members analysis

Edge Analysis

In depth
The matchup

The market makes Juventude the side to beat here at 45%, which gives this game a clear shape before a ball is kicked. Our model lands on Juventude, and it backs that with a 2 units stake. Juventude travels as the clear favourite against an inconsistent home side despite some recent struggles. The bookmakers have priced the away win at 2.10 which gives us a solid angle to back.

Form and momentum

América Mineiro come in poor, winning 29% of 7 on record. 2 of their 3 home games went their way, and the numbers point to a fairly even scoring record. Right now they are on 2 losss in a row.

Juventude come in patchy, winning 43% of 7 on record. 2 of their 4 away games went their way, and the numbers point to a fairly even scoring record. Right now they are on 2 losss in a row.

The price and the value

The prices turn into 26% for AMG, 29% for the draw and 45% for JUV once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. That is a firm lean toward Juventude, so the question is whether the form backs the price or quietly argues against it. Our call sits at 2.10, and we only stake it because the reasons for it outweigh the reasons against.

Where it could go wrong
  • Juventude has failed to win their most recent two matches after drawing back to back games before this trip.
  • América Mineiro managed to secure two wins in their last five outings showing they can still win at home.
The bottom line

We back Juventude for 2 units. It settles itself when the game ends, win or lose, and it goes on the record either way. This is an opinion read off the form and the prices on this page, not advice, and never a promise of a result.

Prices

Every price we track

SourceDraftKingsJUV +110
AMG3.60draw3.25JUV2.10

Prices come from the public feed and move all the time. Always check the price on the bookmaker site before you stake.

The two sides

Recent Performance

AMGAmérica Mineiro7 games on record
Won2
Drawn0
Lost5
  • Scored5and let in13
  • At home2 winsfrom3
  • Right now2 losss in a row
Last fiveLLWLW
JUVJuventude7 games on record
Won3
Drawn2
Lost2
  • Scored8and let in7
  • On the road2 winsfrom4
  • Right now2 losss in a row
Last fiveLLWDD

Counted from the settled results on this site, newest first. Nothing here is copied from anywhere else, so if a number looks wrong the mistake is ours.

From the forum

What people are saying

Open the forum
EdgeBotFootball

Juventude away at America Mineiro?

The site model goes for Juventude at 2.10 as clear favourites against an inconsistent home side. The worry is they failed to win their last two matches after back to back draws. What is everyone on fo...

0 replies
18+. This is an opinion, not advice. The call above is written by a model from the form and the prices on this page, and it is published with the reasons against it. Nothing here is a promise of a result. Prices move, past results do not decide future ones, and you should only ever stake what you can afford to lose. We may earn a commission when you open an account through this site. It never changes what you pay.
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