The matchupThe market makes Atlético Tucumán the side to beat here at 38%, but only just, so this reads as a close call rather than a mismatch. Our model lands on Over 1.5, and it backs that with a 2 units stake. We expect goals to flow at the Estadio Jose Maria Minella based on recent form. The price on over 1.5 goals looks solid.
Form and momentumAldosivi come in poor, winning 20% of 5 on record. 1 of their 3 home games went their way, and the numbers point to games at both ends, plenty of goals either way. Right now they are on 1 loss in a row.
Atlético Tucumán come in patchy, winning 33% of 6 on record. 2 of their 2 away games went their way, and the numbers point to a side built on a tight back line. Right now they are on 1 loss in a row.
The price and the valueThe prices turn into 30% for ALDO, 32% for the draw and 38% for CAT once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. There is little between the two in the market, so the edge, if there is one, sits in the detail rather than the headline price. Our call sits at 1.54, and we only stake it because the reasons for it outweigh the reasons against.
Where it could go wrong- Aldosivi managed a recent draw which proves they can sometimes keep things tight when playing at home.
- Atletico Tucuman suffered a recent loss which shows their away form cannot be fully trusted right now.
The bottom lineWe back Over 1.5 for 2 units. It settles itself when the game ends, win or lose, and it goes on the record either way. This is an opinion read off the form and the prices on this page, not advice, and never a promise of a result.