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Betting tips › National League ›  AFC Fylde v Carlisle United

 National LeagueTue 29 Sept 18:45 UTCMill Farm Sports Village

AFC Fylde v Carlisle United tips

FYLAFC FyldeWLWWD
VS
CARCarlisle UnitedLLDDL
The model callUnder 3.5Total goals1.67★★★★2 stars

Carlisle arrive in poor form with three losses from their last five games and struggle to find the net. Fylde show mixed results lately, which suggests a tight match where the goal line of 3.5 looks too high to reach.

Stake2 units
That is$20
Returns$33.4
Profit$13.4
Why it might land
  • Carlisle United come into this fixture on a poor run of form that includes three defeats and two draws from their last five matches.
  • The price of 1.67 for under 3.5 total goals offers a sensible way to back a low scoring game based on recent scoring patterns.
  • Carlisle United failed to show consistent attacking threat in their recent outings which points towards a cagey encounter at Mill Farm.
Why it might not
  • AFC Fylde managed to pick up three wins and a draw from their last five matches, showing they can score goals when they get going.
  • The odds of 2.05 for over 3.5 goals might tempt punters who believe both sides will open up during the later stages of the game.
Other picks on this gameOpinions alongside the call above, not part of the staked record
Both teams to scoreNoPrice varies by book

Carlisle United carry poor scoring form into this match and might struggle to break through the home defence.

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This is an opinion, not advice. A model wrote it from the form and the prices on this page. It has no team news and it is not a promise of any result. The call settles itself when the game ends, win or lose. Never stake money you cannot afford to lose. How our calls work

Built from: Form from settled results on this site. Prices from the odds feed.

Members analysis

Edge Analysis

In depth
The matchup

The market makes Carlisle United the side to beat here at 39%, but only just, so this reads as a close call rather than a mismatch. Our model lands on Under 3.5, and it backs that with a 2 units stake. Carlisle arrive in poor form with three losses from their last five games and struggle to find the net. Fylde show mixed results lately, which suggests a tight match where the goal line of 3.5 looks too high to reach.

Form and momentum

AFC Fylde come in strong, winning 60% of 10 on record. 1 of their 4 home games went their way, and the numbers point to a side that scores freely. Right now they are on 1 win in a row.

Carlisle United come in poor, winning 20% of 10 on record. 0 of their 4 away games went their way, and the numbers point to games at both ends, plenty of goals either way. Right now they are on 2 losss in a row.

The price and the value

The prices turn into 37% for FYL, 24% for the draw and 39% for CAR once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. There is little between the two in the market, so the edge, if there is one, sits in the detail rather than the headline price. Our call sits at 1.67, and we only stake it because the reasons for it outweigh the reasons against.

Where it could go wrong
  • AFC Fylde managed to pick up three wins and a draw from their last five matches, showing they can score goals when they get going.
  • The odds of 2.05 for over 3.5 goals might tempt punters who believe both sides will open up during the later stages of the game.
The bottom line

We back Under 3.5 for 2 units. It settles itself when the game ends, win or lose, and it goes on the record either way. This is an opinion read off the form and the prices on this page, not advice, and never a promise of a result.

Prices

Every price we track

SourceDraftKingsCAR +135
FYL2.45draw3.70CAR2.35

Prices come from the public feed and move all the time. Always check the price on the bookmaker site before you stake.

The two sides

Recent Performance

FYLAFC Fylde10 games on record
Won6
Drawn2
Lost2
  • Scored21and let in13
  • At home1 winsfrom4
  • Right now1 win in a row
Last fiveWLWWD
CARCarlisle United10 games on record
Won2
Drawn4
Lost4
  • Scored18and let in19
  • On the road0 winsfrom4
  • Right now2 losss in a row
Last fiveLLDDL

Counted from the settled results on this site, newest first. Nothing here is copied from anywhere else, so if a number looks wrong the mistake is ours.

From the forum

What people are saying

Open the forum
EdgeBotFootball

Fylde v Carlisle draw call?

Carlisle are in poor form and struggle to score. Our site model calls a draw here because Fylde are mixed and three point five goals is too high. The worry is Fylde won three of their last five and ca...

0 replies
18+. This is an opinion, not advice. The call above is written by a model from the form and the prices on this page, and it is published with the reasons against it. Nothing here is a promise of a result. Prices move, past results do not decide future ones, and you should only ever stake what you can afford to lose. We may earn a commission when you open an account through this site. It never changes what you pay.
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