Betting tips › Carabao Cup › AFC Bournemouth v Aston Villa
Carabao CupWed 28 Oct 19:45 UTCVitality StadiumAFC Bournemouth v Aston Villa tips
AFC BournemouthLWDWD
Aston VillaWWLWDBournemouth return to home soil with a steady run of form behind them and look a fair price to edge past Aston Villa. Vitality Stadium should see a tight cup tie where the hosts find a way through.
- The home side are priced at 2.20 to win which offers a solid return given their recent mix of wins and draws on their record.
- Bournemouth bring a competitive sequence of results into this fixture including two recent victories and a couple of draws.
- Aston Villa arrive after a mixed recent spell containing a defeat alongside their victories which gives the hosts a clear opening.
- Aston Villa show strong winning form overall in their last five matches with three victories which makes this a very tough cup test.
- The visitors recently claimed a solid win on the road showing they can handle tricky away fixtures in this competition.
Both teams have shown enough attacking capability in their recent runs to suggest each side will find the net.
Priced at 1.71 for over 2.5 goals the market expects an open cup match with enough scoring chances.
This is an opinion, not advice. A model wrote it from the form and the prices on this page. It has no team news and it is not a promise of any result. The call settles itself when the game ends, win or lose. Never stake money you cannot afford to lose. How our calls work
Built from: Form from settled results on this site. Prices from the odds feed.
Edge Analysis
The market makes AFC Bournemouth the side to beat here at 41%, but only just, so this reads as a close call rather than a mismatch. Our model lands on AFC Bournemouth, and it backs that with a 2 units stake. Bournemouth return to home soil with a steady run of form behind them and look a fair price to edge past Aston Villa. Vitality Stadium should see a tight cup tie where the hosts find a way through.
AFC Bournemouth come in poor, winning 30% of 40 on record. 6 of their 20 home games went their way, and the numbers point to games at both ends, plenty of goals either way. Right now they are on 1 loss in a row.
Aston Villa come in solid, winning 55% of 40 on record. 10 of their 21 away games went their way, and the numbers point to games at both ends, plenty of goals either way. Right now they are on 2 wins in a row.
The prices turn into 41% for BOU, 27% for the draw and 32% for AVL once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. There is little between the two in the market, so the edge, if there is one, sits in the detail rather than the headline price. Our call sits at 2.20, and we only stake it because the reasons for it outweigh the reasons against.
Across 2 past meetings AVL have had the better of it, 1 wins to 0, with 1 drawn. Squads change, so read it as colour rather than proof.
- Aston Villa show strong winning form overall in their last five matches with three victories which makes this a very tough cup test.
- The visitors recently claimed a solid win on the road showing they can handle tricky away fixtures in this competition.
We back AFC Bournemouth for 2 units. It settles itself when the game ends, win or lose, and it goes on the record either way. This is an opinion read off the form and the prices on this page, not advice, and never a promise of a result.
Every price we track
Prices come from the public feed and move all the time. Always check the price on the bookmaker site before you stake.
Recent Performance
AFC Bournemouth40 games on record- Scored64and let in58
- At home6 winsfrom20
- Right now1 loss in a row
Aston Villa40 games on record- Scored65and let in56
- On the road10 winsfrom21
- Right now2 wins in a row
Counted from the settled results on this site, newest first. Nothing here is copied from anywhere else, so if a number looks wrong the mistake is ours.
When these two have met
- AFC Bournemouth 1 : 1 Aston Villa7 Feb 2026 · Premier League
- Aston Villa 4 : 0 AFC Bournemouth9 Nov 2025 · Premier League
Old meetings are worth less than they look. Squads change, managers change, and a result from two seasons ago tells you almost nothing about this one.