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Betting tips › Europa League ›  AFC Bournemouth v AC Milan

 Europa LeagueThu 22 Oct 19:00 UTCVitality Stadium

AFC Bournemouth v AC Milan tips

BOUAFC BournemouthLWDWD
VS
MILAC MilanWLDDW
The model callAFC BournemouthMatch result2.20★★★★2 stars

Bournemouth look good value at home against Milan given their recent form and the generous price on offer. The Italian side has been far too inconsistent on the road recently.

Stake2 units
That is$20
Returns$44
Profit$24
Why it might land
  • The home side are priced at 2.20 to win this match which offers fair value based on their recent run of results that includes two wins and two draws.
  • Bournemouth bring decent momentum into this fixture following a solid sequence of results across their last five matches where they only suffered a single defeat.
  • AC Milan have struggled to find any real rhythm lately as their mixed sequence of two wins two draws and one loss clearly shows.
Why it might not
  • AC Milan remain a dangerous opponent despite their inconsistent form and they recently managed to secure a solid win in their latest outing.
  • Bournemouth have drawn two of their last five matches which proves they can sometimes struggle to turn good positions into all three points.
Other picks on this gameOpinions alongside the call above, not part of the staked record
Both teams to scoreYesPrice varies by book

Both teams have shown enough inconsistency in defence across their recent matches to suggest neither will keep a clean sheet here.

Total goalsOver 2.75 goalsPrice 1.93

The goal line sits at 2.75 with even pricing which suggests an open game given both squads have shown vulnerabilities lately.

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This is an opinion, not advice. A model wrote it from the form and the prices on this page. It has no team news and it is not a promise of any result. The call settles itself when the game ends, win or lose. Never stake money you cannot afford to lose. How our calls work

Built from: Form from settled results on this site. Prices from the odds feed.

Members analysis

Edge Analysis

In depth
The matchup

The market makes AFC Bournemouth the side to beat here at 43%, which gives this game a clear shape before a ball is kicked. Our model lands on AFC Bournemouth, and it backs that with a 2 units stake. Bournemouth look good value at home against Milan given their recent form and the generous price on offer. The Italian side has been far too inconsistent on the road recently.

Form and momentum

AFC Bournemouth come in poor, winning 30% of 40 on record. 6 of their 20 home games went their way, and the numbers point to games at both ends, plenty of goals either way. Right now they are on 1 loss in a row.

AC Milan come in solid, winning 50% of 40 on record. 10 of their 20 away games went their way, and the numbers point to a fairly even scoring record. Right now they are on 1 win in a row.

The price and the value

The prices turn into 43% for BOU, 26% for the draw and 31% for MIL once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. That is a firm lean toward AFC Bournemouth, so the question is whether the form backs the price or quietly argues against it. Our call sits at 2.20, and we only stake it because the reasons for it outweigh the reasons against.

Where it could go wrong
  • AC Milan remain a dangerous opponent despite their inconsistent form and they recently managed to secure a solid win in their latest outing.
  • Bournemouth have drawn two of their last five matches which proves they can sometimes struggle to turn good positions into all three points.
The bottom line

We back AFC Bournemouth for 2 units. It settles itself when the game ends, win or lose, and it goes on the record either way. This is an opinion read off the form and the prices on this page, not advice, and never a promise of a result.

Prices

Every price we track

SourceBet365
BOU2.20draw3.60MIL3.00

Prices come from the public feed and move all the time. Always check the price on the bookmaker site before you stake.

The two sides

Recent Performance

BOUAFC Bournemouth40 games on record
Won12
Drawn20
Lost8
  • Scored64and let in58
  • At home6 winsfrom20
  • Right now1 loss in a row
Last fiveLWDWD
MILAC Milan40 games on record
Won20
Drawn12
Lost8
  • Scored56and let in39
  • On the road10 winsfrom20
  • Right now1 win in a row
Last fiveWLDDW

Counted from the settled results on this site, newest first. Nothing here is copied from anywhere else, so if a number looks wrong the mistake is ours.

From the forum

What people are saying

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EdgeBotFootball

Bournemouth v Milan in the Europa League

Bournemouth look good value at home against Milan given their recent form and the generous price on offer, as the Italian side has been far too inconsistent on the road recently. Milan remain a danger...

0 replies
18+. This is an opinion, not advice. The call above is written by a model from the form and the prices on this page, and it is published with the reasons against it. Nothing here is a promise of a result. Prices move, past results do not decide future ones, and you should only ever stake what you can afford to lose. We may earn a commission when you open an account through this site. It never changes what you pay.
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