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Betting tips › Primera Nacional ›  Acassuso v Mitre (Santiago del Estero)

 Primera NacionalSat 19 Sept 18:00 UTCLa QuemaFinished

Acassuso v Mitre (Santiago del Estero) tips

ACAAcassusoLLDLL
2 : 0
MITMitre (Santiago del Estero)DDDL
The model callOver 1.5Total goals1.57★★★★2 starsWon

We are backing over 1.5 goals in this match because both sides desperately need a spark to fix their terrible runs. Mitre managed three draws in their last four outings while Acassuso lost four of their last five.

Stake2 units
That is$20
Returns$31.4
Profit$11.4
Why it might land
  • The total goals line sits at 1.5 with the over priced at 1.57 because these fixtures often see defensive lapses from struggling sides.
  • Acassuso enters this game after losing four of their last five matches which exposes a backline prone to conceding multiple times.
  • Mitre comes into this fixture following three draws and one recent loss showing they struggle to keep clean sheets on the road.
Why it might not
  • Acassuso failed to win any of their last five matches and their blunt attack might completely stall out at La Quema.
  • Mitre has proven very difficult to separate from opponents lately with three consecutive draws in their recent results.
Other picks on this gameOpinions alongside the call above, not part of the staked record
Both teams to scoreNoPrice varies by bookWon

Given that Acassuso has lost four out of five without scoring much, one side might draw a blank.

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This is an opinion, not advice. A model wrote it from the form and the prices on this page. It has no team news and it is not a promise of any result. The call settles itself when the game ends, win or lose. Never stake money you cannot afford to lose. How our calls work

Built from: Form from settled results on this site. Prices from the odds feed.

Members analysis

Edge Analysis

In depth
The matchup

The market makes Mitre (Santiago del Estero) the side to beat here at 34%, but only just, so this reads as a close call rather than a mismatch. Our model lands on Over 1.5, and it backs that with a 2 units stake. We are backing over 1.5 goals in this match because both sides desperately need a spark to fix their terrible runs. Mitre managed three draws in their last four outings while Acassuso lost four of their last five.

Form and momentum

Acassuso come in poor, winning 0% of 5 on record. 0 of their 3 home games went their way, and the numbers point to a fairly even scoring record. Right now they are on 2 losss in a row.

Mitre (Santiago del Estero) come in poor, winning 0% of 4 on record. 0 of their 2 away games went their way, and the numbers point to a fairly even scoring record. Right now they are on 3 draws in a row.

The price and the value

The prices turn into 32% for ACA, 34% for the draw and 34% for MIT once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. There is little between the two in the market, so the edge, if there is one, sits in the detail rather than the headline price. Our call sits at 1.57, and we only stake it because the reasons for it outweigh the reasons against.

Where it could go wrong
  • Acassuso failed to win any of their last five matches and their blunt attack might completely stall out at La Quema.
  • Mitre has proven very difficult to separate from opponents lately with three consecutive draws in their recent results.
The bottom line

We back Over 1.5 for 2 units. It settles itself when the game ends, win or lose, and it goes on the record either way. This is an opinion read off the form and the prices on this page, not advice, and never a promise of a result.

Prices

Every price we track

SourceDraftKingsMIT +165
ACA2.85draw2.70MIT2.65

Prices come from the public feed and move all the time. Always check the price on the bookmaker site before you stake.

The two sides

Recent Performance

ACAAcassuso5 games on record
Won0
Drawn1
Lost4
  • Scored1and let in5
  • At homeno winsfrom3
  • Right now2 losss in a row
Last fiveLLDLL
MITMitre (Santiago del Estero)4 games on record
Won0
Drawn3
Lost1
  • Scored2and let in6
  • On the roadno winsfrom2
  • Right now3 draws in a row
Last fiveDDDL

Counted from the settled results on this site, newest first. Nothing here is copied from anywhere else, so if a number looks wrong the mistake is ours.

From the forum

What people are saying

Open the forum
EdgeBotFootball

Goals in Acassuso v Mitre?

The site model calls the draw with over 1.5 goals because both teams need a spark after bad runs. Mitre drew three of four and Acassuso lost four of five. The worry is that the home attack stays total...

0 replies
18+. This is an opinion, not advice. The call above is written by a model from the form and the prices on this page, and it is published with the reasons against it. Nothing here is a promise of a result. Prices move, past results do not decide future ones, and you should only ever stake what you can afford to lose. We may earn a commission when you open an account through this site. It never changes what you pay.
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