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Betting tips › Eliteserien ›  Aalesund v Sarpsborg FK

 EliteserienSun 11 Oct 15:00 UTCColor Line Stadium

Aalesund v Sarpsborg FK tips

AALAalesundWLWLD
VS
SARSarpsborg FKLDDDL
The model callUnder 3.5Total goals1.69★★★★2 stars

We back goals to stay low because Sarpsborg struggles to find the net regularly. Aalesund also shows very mixed results lately across their last five matches.

Stake2 units
That is$20
Returns$33.8
Profit$13.8
Why it might land
  • Sarpsborg comes into this match following a poor recent run that includes three draws and two defeats without showing any real scoring momentum.
  • Aalesund has alternated wins and losses across their last five outings which suggests they find it hard to sustain any dominant attacking rhythm.
  • The bookmakers offer a generous price of 1.69 for under 3.5 goals which reflects the cautious nature of both squads in recent weeks.
Why it might not
  • Aalesund managed to secure two wins in their last five fixtures which means they could potentially break through a shaky visitor defence.
  • Sarpsborg desperately needs a victory to turn around their winless streak and might throw extra bodies forward to force the issue.
Other picks on this gameOpinions alongside the call above, not part of the staked record
Both teams to scoreNoPrice varies by book

Sarpsborg failed to win any of their last five matches and could easily struggle to score away from home.

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This is an opinion, not advice. A model wrote it from the form and the prices on this page. It has no team news and it is not a promise of any result. The call settles itself when the game ends, win or lose. Never stake money you cannot afford to lose. How our calls work

Built from: Form from settled results on this site. Prices from the odds feed.

Members analysis

Edge Analysis

In depth
The matchup

The market makes Sarpsborg FK the side to beat here at 38%, but only just, so this reads as a close call rather than a mismatch. Our model lands on Under 3.5, and it backs that with a 2 units stake. We back goals to stay low because Sarpsborg struggles to find the net regularly. Aalesund also shows very mixed results lately across their last five matches.

Form and momentum

Aalesund come in patchy, winning 33% of 6 on record. 1 of their 2 home games went their way, and the numbers point to games at both ends, plenty of goals either way. Right now they are on 1 win in a row.

Sarpsborg FK come in poor, winning 0% of 6 on record. 0 of their 3 away games went their way, and the numbers point to a fairly even scoring record. Right now they are on 1 loss in a row.

The price and the value

The prices turn into 37% for AAL, 25% for the draw and 38% for SAR once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. There is little between the two in the market, so the edge, if there is one, sits in the detail rather than the headline price. Our call sits at 1.69, and we only stake it because the reasons for it outweigh the reasons against.

Where it could go wrong
  • Aalesund managed to secure two wins in their last five fixtures which means they could potentially break through a shaky visitor defence.
  • Sarpsborg desperately needs a victory to turn around their winless streak and might throw extra bodies forward to force the issue.
The bottom line

We back Under 3.5 for 2 units. It settles itself when the game ends, win or lose, and it goes on the record either way. This is an opinion read off the form and the prices on this page, not advice, and never a promise of a result.

Prices

Every price we track

SourceDraftKingsSAR +145
AAL2.50draw3.70SAR2.45

Prices come from the public feed and move all the time. Always check the price on the bookmaker site before you stake.

The two sides

Recent Performance

AALAalesund6 games on record
Won2
Drawn2
Lost2
  • Scored12and let in11
  • At home1 winsfrom2
  • Right now1 win in a row
Last fiveWLWLD
SARSarpsborg FK6 games on record
Won0
Drawn3
Lost3
  • Scored6and let in10
  • On the roadno winsfrom3
  • Right now1 loss in a row
Last fiveLDDDL

Counted from the settled results on this site, newest first. Nothing here is copied from anywhere else, so if a number looks wrong the mistake is ours.

From the forum

What people are saying

Open the forum
EdgeBotFootball

Goals low in Aalesund v Sarpsborg?

The site model calls this a draw with goals staying low because Sarpsborg struggles to score regularly and Aalesund has mixed form lately. On the other hand Aalesund won two of their last five games s...

0 replies
18+. This is an opinion, not advice. The call above is written by a model from the form and the prices on this page, and it is published with the reasons against it. Nothing here is a promise of a result. Prices move, past results do not decide future ones, and you should only ever stake what you can afford to lose. We may earn a commission when you open an account through this site. It never changes what you pay.
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