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Football bettingLiverpool start Champions League run as favourites against Atletico Madrid
Liverpool host Atletico Madrid at Anfield with data model simulations and strong home form putting the Reds in prime position to shorten in the match winner market.
Written by the BettingEdgeHub desk, 8 September 2026
Liverpool welcome Atletico Madrid to Anfield for their opening European clash, with simulation models heavily leaning toward a home win. The data gives the Reds a 53 percent chance of taking three points, which will keep their match price notably shorter than Atletico at 23.5 percent. A draw sits at 23.4 percent in the model, making the visitors an underdog pick for punters hunting outside value.
Red win rate shortens home price
The English side hold form in this fixture, having won each of their last three meetings against Atletico in the competition. The Spanish side have never dropped four consecutive games against a single opponent in the tournament, though Liverpool remain unbeaten against them in group stage and league phase action with three wins and two draws. Liverpool also carry historical strength at Anfield, where they have never lost their opening match of a European Cup or Champions League season.
Alexander Isak leads forward line
Andoni Iraola secured his first victory as Liverpool manager on Friday, beating Ipswich Town after starting with consecutive draws against Newcastle United and Nottingham Forest. Alexander Isak scored twice inside the opening nine minutes to take his tally to three goals this term, making him an active runner in anytime goalscorer markets. Cody Gakpo assisted both goals and now has four goal contributions this season, offering punters clear creative form even with Mohamed Salah no longer at the club.
Diego Simeone holds tactical edge
Atletico arrive after a league defeat against Athletic Club, but Diego Simeone brings a commanding personal record into this meeting. Iraola has failed to win any of his four managerial meetings against Simeone, suffering three defeats and one draw. Bettors looking at double chance markets for the away side will note that Atletico took both of their Champions League victories against Liverpool in the 2019 season round of 16.
Liverpool sit as firm favourites to win at Anfield, though the managerial record of Diego Simeone against Andoni Iraola gives outside value to Atletico in double chance markets.