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Betting tips › Brasileirao ›  Bahia v São Paulo

 BrasileiraoWed 28 Oct 18:00 UTCArena Fonte Nova

Bahia v São Paulo tips

BAHBahiaLWWWW
VS
SAOSão PauloWLWWL
The model callBahiaMatch result2.00★★★★2 stars

Bahia arrive at Arena Fonte Nova on a strong run of four wins from their last five matches. São Paulo travel with mixed form after trading recent wins and defeats.

Stake2 units
That is$20
Returns$40
Profit$20
Why it might land
  • Bahia come into this fixture at Arena Fonte Nova having claimed four wins from their last five league matches.
  • The bookmakers offer a fair price of 2.00 for Bahia to win this home game in front of their own supporters.
  • São Paulo show inconsistent recent form with two defeats in their last five matches across the competition.
Why it might not
  • São Paulo recently proved they can win matches on their day as shown by their victory in their last five outings.
  • Bahia suffered a defeat in their most recent match which breaks their otherwise spotless run of four straight wins.
Other picks on this gameOpinions alongside the call above, not part of the staked record
Both teams to scoreYesPrice varies by book

Both teams have enough mixed defensive results lately to suggest both sides could find the net.

Total goalsOver 2.5 goalsPrice varies by book

The total goals line is set at 2.5 with no prices offered so it is hard to judge the value.

Opens the books licensed in United States
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This is an opinion, not advice. A model wrote it from the form and the prices on this page. It has no team news and it is not a promise of any result. The call settles itself when the game ends, win or lose. Never stake money you cannot afford to lose. How our calls work

Built from: Form from settled results on this site. Prices from the odds feed.

Members analysis

Edge Analysis

In depth
The matchup

The market makes Bahia the side to beat here at 46%, which gives this game a clear shape before a ball is kicked. Our model lands on Bahia, and it backs that with a 2 units stake. Bahia arrive at Arena Fonte Nova on a strong run of four wins from their last five matches. São Paulo travel with mixed form after trading recent wins and defeats.

Form and momentum

Bahia come in solid, winning 57% of 7 on record. 2 of their 3 home games went their way, and the numbers point to games at both ends, plenty of goals either way. Right now they are on 1 loss in a row.

São Paulo come in patchy, winning 43% of 7 on record. 0 of their 3 away games went their way, and the numbers point to a fairly even scoring record. Right now they are on 1 win in a row.

The price and the value

The prices turn into 46% for BAH, 27% for the draw and 27% for SAO once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. That is a firm lean toward Bahia, so the question is whether the form backs the price or quietly argues against it. Our call sits at 2.00, and we only stake it because the reasons for it outweigh the reasons against.

Where it could go wrong
  • São Paulo recently proved they can win matches on their day as shown by their victory in their last five outings.
  • Bahia suffered a defeat in their most recent match which breaks their otherwise spotless run of four straight wins.
The bottom line

We back Bahia for 2 units. It settles itself when the game ends, win or lose, and it goes on the record either way. This is an opinion read off the form and the prices on this page, not advice, and never a promise of a result.

Prices

Every price we track

SourceDraftKingsBAH +100
BAH2.00draw3.45SAO3.45

Prices come from the public feed and move all the time. Always check the price on the bookmaker site before you stake.

The two sides

Recent Performance

BAHBahia7 games on record
Won4
Drawn2
Lost1
  • Scored14and let in10
  • At home2 winsfrom3
  • Right now1 loss in a row
Last fiveLWWWW
SAOSão Paulo7 games on record
Won3
Drawn1
Lost3
  • Scored7and let in7
  • On the road0 winsfrom3
  • Right now1 win in a row
Last fiveWLWWL

Counted from the settled results on this site, newest first. Nothing here is copied from anywhere else, so if a number looks wrong the mistake is ours.

18+. This is an opinion, not advice. The call above is written by a model from the form and the prices on this page, and it is published with the reasons against it. Nothing here is a promise of a result. Prices move, past results do not decide future ones, and you should only ever stake what you can afford to lose. We may earn a commission when you open an account through this site. It never changes what you pay.
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